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What does your ad budget actually buy?

Every ad calculator will tell you a budget buys 36 clicks and 0.7 conversions. Almost none will tell you that 36 clicks cannot tell a 2% conversion rate from a 5% one, which means the second number was never worth printing. This one does both.

Clicks

36

Conversions

0.72

Cost per conversion

$277.78

Return on spend

0.18×

What this budget can actually prove

36 clicks cannot distinguish a 0.0% conversion rate from a 6.6% one. Any result you get at this budget is mostly noise.

To read a 2.0% rate with any confidence you need roughly 750 clicks. Most calculators print the conversion figure above and stop there.

Below this channel’s working minimum. Below roughly $300 the campaign never leaves its learning phase, so the number you measure is not the number you would get at scale.

To break even at this budget you would need a conversion rate of 11.1% — higher than the 2.0% you entered.

The same $200 on every channel

ChannelClicksCost / conversionReturnEnough to learn?
Google Ads (search)36$277.780.18×no
Meta (Facebook / Instagram)180$55.560.90×no
Display / programmatic12$833.330.06×no
Newsletter sponsorship0.00×no clicks to read
A twelve-hour slot on this board0.00×no clicks to read

A dash means the channel does not sell in units this budget can buy, or publishes no audience size a click count could honestly be derived from.

The numbers travel in the URL.

Where these figures come from

How it works out the answer

Cost-per-click channels divide the budget by the benchmark click price. Cost-per-thousand channels buy impressions first and convert them at the channel’s published click-through rate. Flat-fee channels buy whole placements, and where a channel publishes no audience size, the click count is left blank rather than invented.

The confidence line uses the normal approximation for a proportion: an observed conversion rate is only worth acting on once its interval is narrower than about half the rate itself, which needs roughly 15 ÷ your conversion rate clicks. At 2% that is about 750 clicks, which at a typical search price is well over $4,000. Most small tests are not measurements, and the useful thing a small test does is eliminate the obviously bad rather than crown a winner.

Our own board is one row in the table. It is ours, so weigh it accordingly — the honest limitation is reach, not price, and the numbers it reports are published on the front page and on each brand’s own page.

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